#MISEN: Poll shows Land (R) leading Peters (D)

Written by . Posted in 2014 CampaignsPolling

Michigan’s former Republican Secretary of State, Terri Lynn Land, seems pretty happy about a new poll that has her in the lead for Senate. Land narrowly leads Peters, 42 to 40 percent, in the race for the Senate seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Carl Levin, D. This will be Michigan’s first open-seat Senate race since 1994.

“It’s an open seat. It’s very winnable for the first time in decades,” Land told Conservative Intel, pointing out that Republicans tend to perform well in Michigan in midterm elections than in presidential years. “I still have 60 percent name ID from the days when I was Secretary of State, and also very high positives. We were able to accomplish a lot of things as Secretary of State — modernize the office, cut costs, and yet still deliver customer service. And people know me.”

Expect Land’s campaign to focus heavily on Obamacare — for which her opponent voted — especially at first. It was the first issue she mentioned when I asked why she was running for Senate. “The reality is that it’s not working,” she said. “We need to help the folks here in Michigan who are losing their insurance — over 225,000 folks in Michigan alone will be losing their insurance. And when the employer side kicks in next year, even more people will lose their insurance.”

Land has her party’s field all to herself — as does her Democratic opponent, U.S. Rep. Gary Peters, who represents part of Detroit and the bluer parts of its Oakland County suburbs. Peters had a lot of incentive to get into this race — redistricting gave him a more solidly Democratic district, but it’s also 58 percent black, and he might have had trouble keeping it if a credible black challenger had arisen. He survived the 2012 primary against a crowded field under unique circumstances.

To be sure, there are more promising GOP pickup opportunities in Redder states — specifically, in Arkansas, Louisiana, North Carolina, Alaska, Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia. But Republicans are unlikely to get a perfect score in these, and they have only 45 seats now. They six more for a majority, and they could lose one or two of their own seats.

This is why the Michigan race is going to be so important — it could well end up being the seat that decides control of the Senate next November.

Also worthy of note: The Democratic polling firm finds Gov. Rick Snyder, R, with a four point lead over his putative Democratic opponent, former Rep. Mark Schauer, despite upside-down approval ratings. In both the governor and Senate races, the Democratic candidates have poorer name recognition than the Republicans. Two takeaways from that — first, the Dems have a bit more room for their support to grow. Second, for a state that backs Democrats in most presidential elections, Michigan has a surprisingly thin Democratic bench.

– See more at: http://www.conservativeintel.com/2013/12/11/misen-poll-shows-land-r-leading-peters-d/?utm_source=Intel&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=House#sthash.O19rNi8Q.dpuf

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